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Lei Zhang

30 March 2005
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 459
Capital flows and the US "New Economy": consumption smoothing and risk exposure
English
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Abstract
In an analytically tractable model of the global economy, we calculate the Pareto improvement where a country experiencing a favourable supply side shock consumes more against expected future output and spreads the risk by selling shares. With capital inflows to finance the"New Economy" significantly exceeding the current account deficit, however, we show that selling shares globally at inflated prices - due to "irrational exuberance" and distorted corporate incentives - can generate significant international transfers when the asset bubble bursts. The analysis complements recent econometric studies which appeal to financial factors to explain why the European economy was so strongly affected by the recent US downturn.
JEL Code
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets