ECB Forum on Central Banking 2023

Opening reception and dinner

Hosted by the Executive Board of the European Central Bank

Welcome remarks

Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank

Dinner speech: Three Uncomfortable Truths for Monetary Policy

Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Introductory speech

Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank

Session 1: Monetary policy in the face of multiple supply shocks

Chair: Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Paper: “Monetary policy in the face of supply shocks: the role of inflation expectations”

Author: Silvana Tenreyro, external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England, and Professor, London School of Economics (together with Nicolò Bandera, Bank of England, Lauren Barnes, Bank of England, Matthieu Chavaz, Bank of England and Lukas von dem Berge, Bank of England and Oxford University)

Discussant: Daniel Gros, Professor, Bocconi University
Paper: Discussion of “Monetary policy in the face of supply shocks: the role of inflation expectations”

Session 2: Assessing the costs of inflation

Chair: Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Paper: “Inflation and misallocation in New Keynesian models”

Author: Francesco Lippi, Professor, LUISS University (together with Alberto Cavallo, Associate Professor, Harvard Business School, and Ken Miyahara, Graduate Student and Research Assistant at EIEF)

Discussant: Sharon Kozicki, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada
Paper: Discussion of “Inflation and misallocation in New Keynesian models”

Coffee break and poster session for the Young Economist Prize

Panel 1: Structural change in energy markets and implications for inflation

Chair: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

• Ida Wolden Bache, Governor, Norges Bank
• Christiane Baumeister, Professor, University of Notre Dame
  Paper: Pandemic, War, Inflation: Oil Markets at a Crossroads?
• Javier Blas, Columnist, Bloomberg
  Paper: Inside the commodity markets in 2020-23 – what happened and how they work
• Miguel Gil Tertre, Chief Economist and Head of Unit, European Commission
  Paper: Structural changes in energy markets and price implications: effects of the recent energy crisis and perspectives of the green transition

Lunch

Reception and dinner hosted by the Executive Board of the European Central Bank

Poster session for the Young Economist Prize

Session 3: Monetary policy normalisation

Chair: Luis de Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank

Paper: “Balance sheet policy above the effective lower bound”

Author: Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, Senior Adviser, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Jordi Galí, Professor, Pompeu Fabra University
Paper: Discussion of “Balance sheet policy above the effective lower bound”

Session 4: The optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy in the context of high inflation

Chair: Luis de Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank

Paper: “Unconventional fiscal policy in times of high inflation”

Author: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund (together with Mai Chi Dao, Allan Dizioli, Chris Jackson and Daniel Leigh, all International Monetary Fund)

Discussant: Giancarlo Corsetti, Professor, European University Institute
Paper: Discussion of “Unconventional fiscal policy in times of high inflation”

Coffee break

Panel 2: Lessons from recent experiences in macroeconomic forecasting

Chair: Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

• Alfred Kammer, Director of the European Department, International Monetary Fund
  Paper: Lessons for macroeconomic forecasting in the aftermath of the pandemic and the energy shock
• Clare Lombardelli, Director General, Chief Economist and G20 Finance Deputy, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
  Paper: Lessons from recent OECD experience of macroeconomic forecasting
• Huw Pill, Chief Economist, Bank of England
  Paper: Recent experience with macroeconomic forecasting for UK monetary policy
• Chiara Scotti, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
  Paper: Financial shocks in an uncertain economy

Lunch

Policy panel

• Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England
• Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank
• Jerome Powell, Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
• Kazuo Ueda, Governor, Bank of Japan
  

Moderator: Sara Eisen, Closing Bell anchor, CNBC

Award ceremony for the Young Economist Prize

Closing remarks

Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank

Group photo (all participants)

Reception and dinner hosted by the Banco de Portugal