Non disponibile in italiano
Felix Eschenbach
- 1 November 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 191Details
- Abstract
- This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the fiscal costs of financial instability (defined as major asset price changes and including, as extreme cases, financial crises). The study identifies three channels to fiscal accounts: 1) revenue effects on capital gains, asset turnover and consumption tax, 2) bailout costs as asset price declines undermine balance sheets of companies/banks, and 3) second-round effects from asset prices changes via the real economy and via debt service costs. A panel analysis and case studies show that episodes of financial instability increase the variability of fiscal balances. Moreover, fiscal costs are often very large and much larger than assumed in the literature so far with public debt rising by up to 50% of GDP during such episodes. These fiscal effects can also serve as a, so far under-emphasised, rationale for the deficit and debt targets in the EU�s Maastricht Treaty and Stability and Growth Pact.
- JEL Code
- H3 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- 1 May 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 141Details
- Abstract
- The paper argues that there are important links between asset prices and public finances which can strongly affect the variability of fiscal balances. Asset prices affect fiscal balances via capital gains and turnover related taxes, and via wealth effects on consumption and indirect taxes. The fiscal costs of asset price changes can be higher if government can be held liable for balance sheet losses from an asset price downturn. An empirical study finds significant effects of house and/or stock prices on revenue in a majority of the 17 OECD countries and revenue categories examined. On average, a 10-percent change in real estate and stock prices has a similar effect on the fiscal balance as a 1-percent change in output, although effects differ considerably across countries. By 2001-2002, some countries' fiscal balances seem upward biased, due to positive effects from earlier asset price booms.
- JEL Code
- H3 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets