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Sabine Herrmann
- 17 June 2008
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 88Details
- Abstract
- Global financial integration has been associated with divergent patterns of real convergence and the current account in emerging markets. While countries in emerging Asia have been running sizeable current account surpluses, countries in emerging Europe have been facing large current account deficits. In this paper we test for the relevance of financial market characteristics in explaining this divergence in the catching-up process in Europe and Asia. We assume that the two regions constitute distinct convergence clubs, with the euro area and the United States respectively at their core. In line with the theoretical literature, we find that better developed and more integrated financial markets increase emerging markets' ability to borrow abroad. Moreover, the degree of financial integration within the convergence clubs - as opposed to the state of financial integration in the global economy - and the extent of reserve accumulation are significant factors in explaining the divergent patterns of real convergence and the current account in the regions under review.
- JEL Code
- F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
O53 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Asia including Middle East
- 28 March 2007
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 57Details
- Abstract
- The primary goal of monetary policy in most economies of the world is to achieve and maintain price stability. This paper evaluates price developments and consumer price indices in south-eastern European countries, i.e. countries that have either recently joined the EU or are candidate or potential candidate countries. It is motivated by the fact that, in transition countries, inflation has generally been higher and more volatile than in advanced economies. The analysis reveals that the subindex housing/energy appears to be the main driving force behind overall inflation in the region. In most of the countries under review, administered prices prove to be an important factor in consumer price developments, with their weights increasing over time. Inflation volatility in south-eastern Europe is significantly higher than in the euro area. While this is partly due to a higher level of inflation, it also reflects a more pronounced share for the most volatile sub-indices as well as the marked impact of administered prices on the overall price index, a phenomenon which has also been seen in the central and eastern European countries. While in most south-eastern European countries no HICP has been calculated yet, there is little evidence suggesting that the future use of the HICP will result in a systematic change in inflation patterns in the respective countries. However, as deviations have been observed in a few countries for certain periods, without further information on the structure of the respective national CPI and the HICP such differences cannot be fully excluded.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
O57 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Comparative Studies of Countries
P22 : Economic Systems→Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies→Prices