Véronique Genre
- 8 December 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1277Details
- Abstract
- In this paper, we explore the potential gains from alternative combinations of the surveyed forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Our analysis encompasses a variety of methods including statistical combinations based on principal components analysis and trimmed means, performance-based weighting, least squares estimates of optimal weights as well as Bayesian shrinkage. We provide a pseudo real-time out-of-sample performance evaluation of these alternative combinations and check the sensitivity of the results to possible data-snooping bias. The latter robustness check is also informed using a novel real time meta selection procedure which is not subject to the data-snooping critique. For GDP growth and the unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast. Conversely, for the inflation rate there is stronger evidence that more refined combinations can lead to improvement over this benchmark. In particular, for this variable, the relative improvement appears significant even controlling for data snooping bias.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
- 4 March 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1022Details
- Abstract
- This paper focuses on the euro area wage structure and its potential determinants from a sectoral viewpoint. Merging information from the OECD Structural Analysis database with data from the EU Labour Force Survey, we construct a cross-country panel of 22 industries in 8 euro area countries for 1991-2002. Data inspection confirms the existence of a fairly stable inter- industry wage structure that is similar across countries. We then apply panel data techniques to identify factors explaining inter-industry wage differentials in the euro area. Both workforce characteristics (e.g., human capital variables) and firm-related characteristics (e.g., capital intensity, productivity) contribute significantly. However, considerable wage heterogeneity across sectors remains. Idiosyncratic sector and country specifics, reflecting different sociocultural and institutional backgrounds, appear to bear a major role. While our paper only uses direct evidence from workforce and firm-related characteristics, we also try to relate the remaining heterogeneity to institutional characteristics, based on available relevant literature.
- JEL Code
- J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
J51 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor?Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining→Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects - Network
- Wage dynamics network
- 5 April 2007
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 59Details
- Abstract
- Eight years have passed since the European Central Bank (ECB) launched its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The SPF asks a panel of approximately 75 forecasters located in the European Union (EU) for their short- to longer-term expectations for macroeconomic variables such as euro area inflation, growth and unemployment. This paper provides an initial assessment of the information content of this survey. First, we consider shorter-term (i.e., one- and two-year ahead rolling horizon) forecasts. The analysis suggests that, over the sample period, in common with other private and institutional forecasters, the SPF systematically under-forecast inflation but that there is less evidence of such systematic errors for GDP and unemployment forecasts. However, these findings, which generally hold regardless of whether one considers the aggregate SPF panel or individual responses, should be interpreted with caution given the relatively short sample period available for the analysis. Second, we consider SPF respondents
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 16 March 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 454Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an empirical study of the determinants of female participation decisions in the European Union. The analysis is performed by estimating participation equations for different age groups (i.e. young, prime-age and older females), using annual data for a panel of 12 EU-15 countries over the period 1980-2000. Our findings show that the strictness of labour market institutions negatively affects the participation rate. Decisions linked to individual preferences with regards to education or fertility are also found relevant to participation of the youngest and prime-age females respectively. The inclusion of a proxy to capture cohort effects is crucial in order to explain the oldest females’ participation.
- JEL Code
- J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 25 February 2005
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 24Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an overview of the magnitude of sectoral wage differentials in the euro area as a whole. Even when adjusting for structural sectoral features such as the skill structure or the proportion of part-timers, average wage levels in services are substantially lower than in manufacturing. The paper also studies how the euro area wage structure compares with that of the United States and the United Kingdom. It discusses some possible determinants of intersectoral wage differentials in the euro area and their likely implications from a policy perspective. A number of worker characteristics (e.g. age, skills, the proportion of temporary or self-employed) are highly correlated with the structure of wage differentials. At the same time, wage differentials are also highly correlated with sector-specific features such as average firm size or capital intensity. Finally, the paper presents some stylised facts on how the euro area wage structure has evolved since the early 1980s.
- JEL Code
- J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J41 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Particular Labor Markets→Labor Contracts
- 28 July 2002
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 4Details
- Abstract
- This paper aims, first, at assessing the relative importance of working age population and participation rates to explain labour force developments in the euro area between 1983 and 2000. It also compares participation rates in the euro area vis-à-vis the US, considering age and gender groups. It shows that the effect of population growth on labour force developments is losing importance relative to the effects of changes in the participation rate. Indeed, in the last few years, the effects of changes in the participation rate have exceeded those of the increase in working age population. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years. As regards the comparison of the euro area with the US, it shows a continuing large difference in women’s participation rate and among the youngest and oldest men’s age groups in the US versus the euro area, giving room for future positive contributions coming from participation in the euro area.