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1999 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

1999 Q1 inflation forecasts
  1999 2000 Dec. 1999 Dec. 2000 2003
Mean point estimate 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Number of replies 66 65 62 61 61
Probability distributions 1999 2000 Dec. 1999 Dec. 2000 2003
<0.0% 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.91.1
0.0-0.4% 7.9 4.6 8.1 4.01.9
0.5-0.9% 32.5 16.9 26.1 14.34.8
1.0-1.4% 46.8 34.9 40.3 30.717.7
1.5-1.9% 10.0 32.9 20.8 34.634.8
2.0-2.4% 1.4 7.9 3.0 12.626.1
2.5-2.9% 0.2 1.4 0.4 2.210.3
3.0-3.4% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.62.4
>3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.11.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

1999 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  1999 2000 1999 Q3 2000 Q3 2003
Mean point estimate 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 65 64 61 60 60
Probability distributions 1999 2000 1999 Q3 2000 Q3 2003
<0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.20.8
0.0-0.4% 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.41.0
0.5-0.9% 1.6 1.3 2.1 1.31.7
1.0-1.4% 8.8 6.2 8.8 5.34.6
1.5-1.9% 32.5 17.3 32.0 15.512.1
2.0-2.4% 44.3 35.0 41.1 34.132.9
2.5-2.9% 9.4 30.6 11.8 30.532.0
3.0-3.4% 1.7 6.7 2.2 9.79.6
3.5-3.9% 0.7 1.6 0.9 2.43.9
>4.0% 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.61.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

1999 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  1999 2000 Nov. 1999 Nov. 2000 2003
Mean point estimate 10.7 10.5 10.6 10.3 9.5
Standard deviation 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8
Number of replies 65 64 60 60 58
Probability distributions 1999 2000 Nov. 1999 Nov. 2000 2003
<9.0% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.415.4
9.0-9.4% 1.0 3.0 1.7 4.522.4
9.5-9.9% 5.2 13.6 7.9 20.222.1
10.0-10.4% 21.0 31.9 27.3 30.919.8
10.5-10.9% 46.3 29.9 37.8 23.711.5
11.0-11.4% 21.6 15.0 21.2 14.25.6
11.5-11.9% 4.0 4.9 3.4 4.91.9
>12.0% 0.8 1.4 0.4 1.31.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0