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1999 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

1999 Q3 inflation forecasts
  1999 2000 June 2000 June 2001
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 53 52 49 46
Probability distributions 1999 2000 June 2000 June 2001
<0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0
0.0-0.4% 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6
0.5-0.9% 20.6 9.8 10.4 6.4
1.0-1.4% 61.7 37.8 37.4 26.5
1.5-1.9% 15.6 38.7 38.6 43.5
2.0-2.4% 1.1 10.7 10.7 16.6
2.5-2.9% 0.2 1.2 1.1 3.0
3.0-3.4% 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.9
>3.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

1999 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  1999 2000 2000 Q1 2001 Q1
Mean point estimate 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 53 53 48 45
Probability distributions 1999 2000 2000 Q1 2001 Q1
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
0.5-0.9% 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4
1.0-1.4% 5.9 2.5 2.8 1.8
1.5-1.9% 42.6 8.5 12.0 5.8
2.0-2.4% 42.3 33.7 46.3 30.4
2.5-2.9% 7.5 43.1 28.7 44.0
3.0-3.4% 0.7 9.3 7.5 13.3
3.5-3.9% 0.3 1.8 1.8 2.9
>4.0% 0.0 0.6 0.3 1.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

1999 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  1999 2000 May 2000 May 2001
Mean point estimate 10.3 9.9 9.9 9.6
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
Number of replies 51 50 47 44
Probability distributions 1999 2000 May 2000 May 2001
<9.0% 0.0 1.1 0.8 5.4
9.0-9.4% 0.9 10.4 10.6 21.9
9.5-9.9% 8.2 34.6 36.8 43.5
10.0-10.4% 57.1 37.8 39.2 20.6
10.5-10.9% 28.6 13.3 10.9 7.3
11.0-11.4% 4.6 2.3 1.4 0.9
11.5-11.9% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4
>12.0% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0