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1999 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

1999 Q4 inflation forecasts
  1999 2000 Sep. 2000 Sep. 2001
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 57 57 53 51
Probability distributions 1999 2000 Sep. 2000 Sep. 2001
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.4
0.5-0.9% 7.9 5.4 7.5 5.7
1.0-1.4% 84.1 31.5 32.0 21.3
1.5-1.9% 7.7 50.9 45.1 46.2
2.0-2.4% 0.2 9.8 11.5 17.9
2.5-2.9% 0.0 1.2 1.8 5.2
3.0-3.4% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4
>3.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

1999 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  1999 2000 2000 Q2 2001 Q2
Mean point estimate 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 57 57 52 49
Probability distributions 1999 2000 2000 Q2 2001 Q2
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4
0.5-0.9% 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7
1.0-1.4% 2.5 0.6 1.0 1.9
1.5-1.9% 37.6 3.6 5.0 6.3
2.0-2.4% 53.4 21.0 21.3 22.4
2.5-2.9% 5.2 51.2 43.9 39.8
3.0-3.4% 1.1 19.9 22.7 22.0
3.5-3.9% 0.0 2.8 4.6 4.5
>4.0% 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

1999 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  1999 2000 Aug. 2000 Aug. 2001
Mean point estimate 10.2 9.7 9.7 9.2
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 52 52 48 47
Probability distributions 1999 2000 Aug. 2000 Aug. 2001
<9.0% 0.0 1.5 1.7 13.3
9.0-9.4% 0.2 16.1 19.6 42.4
9.5-9.9% 11.2 49.7 51.7 32.0
10.0-10.4% 77.5 28.1 22.7 10.5
10.5-10.9% 8.9 4.4 4.1 1.5
11.0-11.4% 2.3 0.1 0.2 0.3
11.5-11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
>12.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0