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2003 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2003 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2003 2004 2005 June 2004 June 2005 2008
Mean point estimate 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 53 52 44 48 41 40
Probability distributions 2003 2004 2005 June 2004 June 2005 2008
<0.0% 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.60.8
0.0-0.4% 0.5 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.91.8
0.5-0.9% 1.7 7.9 7.2 10.8 6.95.8
1.0-1.4% 7.2 28.3 17.9 29.3 20.514.0
1.5-1.9% 45.4 42.8 38.3 34.9 35.733.6
2.0-2.4% 39.5 14.4 25.0 17.7 24.728.0
2.5-2.9% 5.0 3.2 6.0 3.6 6.610.6
3.0-3.4% 0.5 0.6 2.1 0.9 2.44.0
>3.5% 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.71.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2003 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2003 2004 2005 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
Mean point estimate 0.7 1.7 2.3 1.2 2.1 2.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 54 53 45 47 41 40
Probability distributions 2003 2004 2005 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
<0.0% 2.7 0.6 0.5 2.1 0.50.8
0.0-0.4% 21.8 2.0 1.4 7.4 2.61.7
0.5-0.9% 54.2 7.7 3.3 24.6 4.63.9
1.0-1.4% 14.9 24.5 7.0 30.8 9.57.1
1.5-1.9% 3.3 39.8 18.4 18.1 22.716.8
2.0-2.4% 1.1 17.3 36.9 12.1 32.831.3
2.5-2.9% 0.6 5.9 24.2 4.2 18.424.5
3.0-3.4% 0.6 1.4 6.9 0.6 7.19.8
3.5-3.9% 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.1 1.23.2
>4.0% 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.80.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2003 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2003 2004 2005 May 2004 May 2005 2008
Mean point estimate 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.9 8.6 7.4
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.8
Number of replies 53 52 45 44 38 37
Probability distributions 2003 2004 2005 May 2004 May 2005 2008
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03.3
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.6
6.0-6.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.13.8
6.5-6.9% 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.411.0
7.0-7.4% 0.8 0.7 4.6 0.5 2.320.9
7.5-7.9% 2.0 4.2 12.9 3.5 14.124.4
8.0-8.4% 6.5 12.1 22.7 11.4 24.015.5
8.5-8.9% 48.3 35.4 31.0 35.7 28.810.6
9.0-9.4% 38.4 35.1 19.9 37.7 20.94.9
9.5-9.9% 3.3 9.9 6.5 9.1 7.32.4
10.0-10.4% 0.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.71.1
10.5-10.9% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.30.4
>11.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0