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2011 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2011 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2011 2012 2013 June 2012 June 2013 2016
Mean point estimate 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 50 49 39 43 36 39
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2013 June 2012 June 2013 2016
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.20.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.7
0.0 to 0.4% 0.2 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.91.8
0.5 to 0.9% 0.4 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.95.1
1.0 to 1.4% 1.6 12.3 12.9 14.4 14.112.7
1.5 to 1.9% 4.6 35.6 31.4 33.0 30.426.6
2.0 to 2.4% 27.3 31.8 32.2 27.8 29.431.0
2.5 to 2.9% 55.0 11.7 13.3 12.3 12.314.1
3.0 to 3.4% 9.0 2.8 3.1 4.0 3.85.6
3.5 to 3.9% 1.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.01.7
>4.0% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2011 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2011 2012 2013 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2016
Mean point estimate 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 50 49 38 43 35 39
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2016
<-1.0% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.50.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.30.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.4 1.2 0.9 1.6 0.90.7
0.0 to 0.4% 1.0 3.4 2.6 4.5 2.82.6
0.5 to 0.9% 2.8 8.8 7.1 12.7 8.26.6
1.0 to 1.4% 9.5 21.6 19.0 27.7 20.417.2
1.5 to 1.9% 37.7 36.5 34.2 29.9 32.331.6
2.0 to 2.4% 37.6 19.8 23.2 16.1 21.724.9
2.5 to 2.9% 9.0 5.7 7.9 5.2 8.79.5
3.0 to 3.4% 1.4 1.7 3.0 1.1 3.04.2
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.3 1.01.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2011 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2011 2012 2013 May 2012 May 2013 2016
Mean point estimate 9.8 9.5 9.2 9.6 9.3 8.2
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7
Number of replies 46 46 37 40 33 37
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2013 May 2012 May 2013 2016
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.7
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.33.6
7.0 to 7.4% 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.88.1
7.5 to 7.9% 0.1 0.7 2.1 0.8 2.415.5
8.0 to 8.4% 0.7 2.7 6.5 2.2 5.822.1
8.5 to 8.9% 2.1 8.8 19.1 7.9 18.420.4
9.0 to 9.4% 11.3 30.3 34.2 27.5 33.515.1
9.5 to 9.9% 54.9 37.6 23.0 38.6 23.68.4
10.0 to 10.4% 25.7 14.0 9.4 15.5 10.03.6
10.5 to 10.9% 3.8 3.9 2.9 4.8 3.61.5
11.0 to 11.4% 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.5 0.80.4
11.5 to 11.9% 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.30.3
12.0 to 12.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.10.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0