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2023 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2023 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 Mar. 2024 Mar. 2025 2027
Mean point estimate 5.6 2.6 2.2 2.8 2.2 2.1
Standard deviation 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.4
Number of replies 55 55 42 45 34 49
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 Mar. 2024 Mar. 2025 2027
<-1.0% 0.0 1.8 0.2 2.2 0.90.9
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.10.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.8 2.10.7
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.0 3.32.0
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 2.6 7.2 1.8 6.34.5
1.0 to 1.4% 0.1 5.0 8.1 5.7 7.911.3
1.5 to 1.9% 0.1 9.4 15.6 7.9 14.821.7
2.0 to 2.4% 0.3 18.9 25.3 10.9 21.326.9
2.5 to 2.9% 0.8 22.4 16.5 19.1 16.415.2
3.0 to 3.4% 2.1 15.9 8.7 17.6 10.07.4
3.5 to 3.9% 3.1 9.9 5.5 12.9 6.64.2
4.0 to 4.4% 6.4 5.0 2.9 7.8 3.42.5
4.5 to 4.9% 15.6 2.4 1.7 5.6 1.71.2
>5.0% 71.5 4.1 3.0 5.9 4.21.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q2 core inflation forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 Mar. 2024 Mar. 2025 2027
Mean point estimate 4.9 2.8 2.3 3.2 2.4 2.0
Standard deviation 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.3
Number of replies 43 43 33 37 30 36
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 Mar. 2024 Mar. 2025 2027
<-1.0% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.10.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.10.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.30.7
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.12.2
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 1.4 3.4 1.5 2.65.5
1.0 to 1.4% 0.1 3.0 8.6 2.3 7.613.1
1.5 to 1.9% 0.5 9.9 22.5 4.3 18.424.5
2.0 to 2.4% 1.3 18.2 26.0 13.5 25.126.5
2.5 to 2.9% 1.7 23.1 16.1 18.7 18.413.6
3.0 to 3.4% 2.8 19.4 9.0 20.6 10.66.8
3.5 to 3.9% 7.1 11.5 4.8 16.0 5.93.1
4.0 to 4.4% 18.1 5.4 2.7 9.5 2.91.7
4.5 to 4.9% 29.5 2.4 1.4 4.5 1.80.8
>5.0% 38.9 4.6 3.7 7.1 5.11.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 2023 Q4 2024 Q4 2027
Mean point estimate 0.6 1.2 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.4
Standard deviation 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3
Number of replies 57 57 48 47 47 44
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 2023 Q4 2024 Q4 2027
<-1.0% 1.3 1.4 0.6 4.3 3.11.5
-1.0 to -0.6% 3.6 1.7 0.7 4.4 2.01.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 10.3 4.0 2.0 11.2 3.42.9
0.0 to 0.4% 24.1 9.6 5.1 20.4 7.66.3
0.5 to 0.9% 32.4 18.4 9.7 29.4 13.313.4
1.0 to 1.4% 18.5 25.9 22.7 15.7 21.325.9
1.5 to 1.9% 6.0 21.6 25.6 6.7 21.925.8
2.0 to 2.4% 2.0 10.0 18.2 3.0 13.012.1
2.5 to 2.9% 1.0 3.8 9.3 1.9 7.55.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 1.9 3.7 1.1 3.12.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.6 1.61.4
>4.0% 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.3 2.21.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 Feb. 2024 Feb. 2025 2027
Mean point estimate 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.9 6.7 6.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6
Number of replies 50 50 39 34 29 39
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 Feb. 2024 Feb. 2025 2027
<4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.11.5
4.0 to 4.4% 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.1 1.81.6
4.5 to 4.9% 0.3 1.0 1.8 0.7 2.22.7
5.0 to 5.4% 0.6 2.3 3.1 1.9 3.25.8
5.5 to 5.9% 2.1 5.5 7.8 5.0 6.511.9
6.0 to 6.4% 17.8 17.1 20.6 16.8 19.122.0
6.5 to 6.9% 45.4 31.1 28.0 32.8 26.922.3
7.0 to 7.4% 25.0 24.9 21.4 25.6 21.814.0
7.5 to 7.9% 6.0 10.6 8.5 9.4 9.77.5
8.0 to 8.4% 1.5 4.2 3.8 4.2 4.34.5
8.5 to 8.9% 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.12.6
9.0 to 9.4% 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.21.7
9.5 to 9.9% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.60.9
10.0 to 10.4% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.30.4
10.5 to 10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
>11.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0