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2025 Q2

HICP Inflation forecastsCore HICP inflation forecastsReal GDP growth forecastsUnemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.

2025 Q2 inflation forecasts

2025

2026

2027

Mar. 2026

Mar. 2027

2029

Mean point estimate

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Standard deviation

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.2

Number of replies

54

54

43

43

34

43

Probability distributions

2025

2026

2027

Mar. 2026

Mar. 2027

2029

<-0.8%

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.7 to -0.3%

0.2

0.5

0.7

0.6

0.8

0.7

-0.2 to 0.2%

0.5

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.6

0.3 to 0.7%

1.2

3.6

3.3

3.4

3.9

3.2

0.8 to 1.2%

3.4

8.5

7.2

8.9

8.2

8.5

1.3 to 1.7%

13.2

20.0

17.9

19.6

17.7

17.6

1.8 to 2.2%

36.1

31.8

32.6

28.5

25.7

31.3

2.3 to 2.7%

30.7

19.4

20.1

20.1

22.0

20.0

2.8 to 3.2%

8.9

7.8

8.5

9.6

9.9

8.5

3.3 to 3.7%

3.2

3.8

4.1

4.2

4.7

4.2

3.8 to 4.2%

1.2

1.8

2.2

1.8

2.4

2.0

4.3 to 4.7%

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.4

1.0

>4.8%

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.6

1.1

0.9

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Data for the HICP inflation forecasts

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2025 Q2 core inflation forecasts

2025

2026

2027

Mar. 2026

Mar. 2027

2029

Mean point estimate

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.0

Standard deviation

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.2

Number of replies

38

38

31

34

26

30

Probability distributions

2025

2026

2027

Mar. 2026

Mar. 2027

2029

<-0.8%

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.3

-0.7 to -0.3%

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.5

-0.2 to 0.2%

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.5

0.7

1.3

0.3 to 0.7%

0.9

2.0

2.0

1.8

2.0

2.9

0.8 to 1.2%

3.7

6.5

5.9

5.8

4.9

7.2

1.3 to 1.7%

10.5

19.4

20.3

18.3

18.0

18.6

1.8 to 2.2%

32.2

33.2

36.6

30.1

32.8

34.7

2.3 to 2.7%

33.0

21.6

19.8

21.5

24.6

20.8

2.8 to 3.2%

12.4

9.7

7.7

10.5

9.0

6.8

3.3 to 3.7%

4.5

4.2

3.6

7.0

4.1

3.4

3.8 to 4.2%

1.6

1.5

1.9

3.0

2.1

1.7

4.3 to 4.7%

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.1

>4.8%

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.7

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Data for the core HICP inflation forecasts

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2025 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts

2025

2026

2027

2025 Q4

2026 Q4

2029

Mean point estimate

0.9

1.2

1.4

0.9

1.3

1.3

Standard deviation

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.2

Number of replies

54

54

42

48

42

41

Probability distributions

2025

2026

2027

2025 Q4

2026 Q4

2029

<-1.0%

1.3

1.5

1.3

2.7

2.4

1.8

-1.0 to -0.6%

2.2

2.1

1.5

3.7

1.9

1.6

-0.5 to -0.1%

5.2

3.9

2.6

6.9

4.1

3.0

0.0 to 0.4%

12.5

7.3

5.5

13.2

8.0

6.0

0.5 to 0.9%

33.5

17.3

14.1

28.5

15.5

13.6

1.0 to 1.4%

29.6

32.4

28.0

26.5

27.7

27.4

1.5 to 1.9%

9.4

22.8

27.0

9.1

21.2

25.5

2.0 to 2.4%

3.5

7.6

11.5

4.8

11.1

11.6

2.5 to 2.9%

1.3

2.8

4.6

1.9

4.3

5.0

3.0 to 3.4%

0.7

1.2

2.0

1.1

1.8

2.2

3.5 to 3.9%

0.5

0.6

0.9

0.7

1.0

1.1

>4.0%

0.2

0.6

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Data for the real GDP growth forecasts

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO’s definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2025 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts

2025

2026

2027

Feb. 2026

Feb. 2027

2029

Mean point estimate

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.3

6.2

Standard deviation

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.5

Number of replies

48

47

38

33

28

37

Probability distributions

2025

2026

2027

Feb. 2026

Feb. 2027

2029

<4.0%

0.2

0.2

0.7

0.2

0.7

1.1

4.0 to 4.4%

0.3

0.5

1.1

0.5

1.2

1.7

4.5 to 4.9%

0.8

1.3

2.4

1.4

2.8

4.9

5.0 to 5.4%

2.4

4.5

7.7

4.9

6.7

9.6

5.5 to 5.9%

14.1

15.9

22.1

15.0

18.6

21.7

6.0 to 6.4%

42.2

35.9

29.8

31.9

31.9

24.2

6.5 to 6.9%

27.2

24.4

17.0

24.6

17.4

17.7

7.0 to 7.4%

8.1

9.2

9.3

11.5

9.8

8.0

7.5 to 7.9%

2.8

4.7

4.7

5.6

5.5

4.7

8.0 to 8.4%

0.8

1.8

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

8.5 to 8.9%

0.5

0.8

1.3

0.9

1.5

1.6

9.0 to 9.4%

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.4

0.8

0.9

9.5 to 9.9%

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.5

10.0 to 10.4%

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

10.5 to 10.9%

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

>11.0%

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0