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Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025 Conference - Call for papers

European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Monday, 29 and Tuesday, 30 September 2025
Frankfurt am Main

This annual conference, hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, brings together top researchers and policymakers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation. Virtual attendance is available for individuals who are not presenting or serving as discussants.

Christiane Baumeister, University of Notre Dame, and Gauti B. Eggertsson, Brown University, will present keynote addresses.

A policy panel comprising Philip R. Lane, ECB Executive Board member; Beth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; and Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets, Banking, Payments & Resolution at the Bank of England, will provide remarks. The discussion will be moderated by Benoît Mojon, Head of the Economic Analysis Department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Programme

Times displayed are in Central European Time (CET)

* indicates the presenter

Monday, 29 September
8:30

Registration and Welcome Coffee

8:55

Welcome address


SESSION 1
Pricing and Production Networks

9:00

Business Cycles with Pricing Cascades

Mishel Ghassibe*, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREi), Barcelona School of Economics and Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Discussant: James Costain, Bank of Spain

9:50

Uncertainty through the Production Network: Sectoral Origins and Macroeconomic Implications

  • Giacomo Candian*, HEC Montréal and Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO)
  • Matteo Cacciatore HEC Montréal, Bank of Canada and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Discussant: Efrem Castelnuovo, University of Padova

10:40

Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms

  • Ina Hajdini*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Saten Kumar, Auckland University of Technology
  • Samreen Malik, New York University Abu Dhabi
  • Jordan Norris, New York University Abu Dhabi
  • Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Discussant: Tiziano Ropele, Bank of Italy

11:30

Coffee Break

11:50

Keynote Speech

Oil, Inflation Expectations and Household Characteristics: A Nonlinear Heterogenous Agent VAR Approach

Christiane Baumeister, University of Notre Dame

12:50

Buffet Lunch and Poster Session I
Foyer

Poster Session I
Firms’ Inflation and Wage Expectations during the Inflation Surge

  • Erwan Gautier*, Banque de France and Université Paris-Dauphine

  • Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin, and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
  • Frederique Savignac, Banque de France

State-Dependent Sticky Expectations: Evidence and Theory
  • Kenneth Eva, University of Pennsylvania
  • Michael Lamla, University of Duisburg-Essen, and ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
  • Damjan Pfajfar*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Product turnover and endogenous price flexibility in uncertain times
  • Makram Khalil, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Vivien Lewis*, Deutsche Bundesbank and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Post-Pandemic Price Flexibility in the U.S.: Evidence and Implications for Price Setting Models 
  • Hugh Montag, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Daniel Villar, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Cast out the pure? Inflation and relative prices on both sides of the Atlantic
  • Emanuele Franceschi, European Central Bank
  • Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank
  • Miles Parker*, European Central Bank

14:00

Policy Panel

  • Beth M. Hammack, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • David E. J. Ramsden, Bank of England
  • Philip R. Lane, European Central Bank

Moderator: Benoît Mojon, Bank for International Settlements 

15:00

Coffee Break


SESSION 2
Inflation Expectations

15:20

The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Expectations: The Distribution Matters

  • Guido Ascari*, Università degli Studi di Pavia, De Nederlandsche Bank and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
  • Paolo Bonomolo, De Nederlandsche Bank and European Central Bank
  • Alessandro Celani, Örebro University

Discussant TBC

16:10

Information and Macroeconomic Expectations: Global Evidence

  • Michael Weber*, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
  • Francesco D'Acunto, McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University

Discussant: Fiorella De Fiore, Bank for International Settlements

17:00

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

  • Raphael Schoenle*, Brandeis University
  • Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
  • Marta Leva, Bocconi University
  • Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University

Discussant: Lena Dräger, Leibniz Universität Hannover 

19:00

Dinner – by invitation only

Tuesday, 30 September
8:35

Coffee


SESSION 3
Firm Pricing Theories

9:00

Rationing Under Sticky Prices

Tom D. Holden*, Deutsche Bundesbank

Discussant: Andrey Alexandrov, Tor Vergata University of Rome 

9:50

Firm Wage Setting and the On-the-Job Search Limit Wage-Price Spirals

  • Jacob P. Weber*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Justin Bloesch, Department of Economics and ILR, Cornell University
  • Seung Joo Lee, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford
Discussant TBC
10:40

Coffee break


SESSION 4
Trade and Inflation

11:00

Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics

  • Albert Queralto*, Federal Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Pablo Cuba-Borda, Federal Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
  • Mikaël Scaramucci, University of California, Los Angeles

Discussant: Ine Van Robays, European Central Bank

11:50

Trade Fragmentation, Inflationary Pressures and Monetary Policy

  • Jenny Chan*, Bank of England
  • Maria Ludovica Ambrosino, London Business School
  • Silvana Tenreyro, London School of Economics and Political Science, The Centre for Macroeconomics, UK, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Discussant: Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute 

12:40

Buffet Lunch and Poster Session II
Foyer

Poster session II
Inflation, Inequality, and the Business Cycle
  • Clara Lindemann, Goethe University
  • Sofia Semik*, Goethe University
  • Mathias Trabandt, Goethe University, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Firm Size, Heterogeneous Strategic Complementarities, and Real Rigidity
  • Takushi Kurozumi, Bank of Japan
  • Willem Van Zandweghe*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
The asymmetric and heterogeneous pass-through of input prices to firms’ expectations and decisions
  • Fiorella De Fiore, Bank for International Settlements and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
  • Marco Lombardi*, Bank for International Settlements
  • Giacomo Mangiante, Bank of Italy
Financial constraints across the production network and the transmission of monetary policy 
  • Alessandro De Sanctis, European Central Bank
  • Stefan Gebauer, European Central Bank
  • Federic Holm-Hadulla, European Central Bank
  • Matteo Sirani*, Bonn Graduate School of Economics
Why Do Supply Disruptions Lead to Inflation?

  • Thomas Kohler, Independent Scholar

  • Jean-Paul L'Huillier*, Brandeis University
  • Gregory Phelan, Williams College
  • Maximilian Weiß, University of Tübingen

14:00

Keynote Speech
When do deficits fuel inflation?

Gauti B. Eggertsson, Brown University 

15:00

Coffee Break


SESSION 5
Inflation and Monetary Policy

15:20

The Taming of the Skew: Asymmetric Inflation Risk and Monetary Policy

  • Andrea De Polis*, University of Strathclyde and Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCOE), UK.
  • Leonardo Melosi, University of Warwick, the European University Institute, De Nederlandsche Bank, and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
  • Ivan Petrella, Collegio Carlo Alberto, the University of Turin, and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Discussant: Matthias Rottner, Bank for International Settlements

16:10

Monetary Policy across Inflation Regimes

  • Katerina Petrova*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics
  • Valeria Gargiulo, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
  • Christian Matthes, Indiana University

Discussant: Marco Lombardi, Bank for International Settlements

17:00

Closing Remarks and Thanks

Please note that this programme may be subject to change without notice.

Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.

General information

Dates

Monday 29 and Tuesday 30 September 2025

Venue

European Central Bank

Eurotower, Room ET C2.01

Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311

Frankfurt am Main

Language

English

Transfers

Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers from and to the airport, unless indicated otherwise.

Dinner

By invitation only

Organising committee
  • Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank
  • Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Sarah Holton, European Central Bank
  • Peter Karadi, European Central Bank
  • Ed Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank
  • Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact

Linda de Leeuw or Iris Bettenhäuser

E-mail: inflation_conference@ecb.europa.eu

Website

www.ecb.europa.eu