Results of the Q2 2019 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

11 April 2019[updated on 11 April 2019 at 11:15 CET ]

• Inflation expectations stable for the longer term at 1.8%, but revised down over 2019-21
• Real GDP growth expectations revised down markedly for 2019, but unchanged for 2021
• Unemployment rate expectations broadly unchanged; further falls in unemployment expected

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2019 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 1.4%, 1.5% and 1.6% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. These results represent downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) for each of those years compared with the previous (Q1 2019) survey round. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this SPF, refer to 2023) were unchanged at 1.8%.

SPF respondents’ expectations for growth in euro area real GDP averaged 1.2%, 1.4% and 1.4% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. This represents downward revisions of 0.3 p.p. for 2019 and 0.1 p.p. for 2020, with no change for 2021. Average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth were revised down slightly to 1.4%.

Average unemployment rate expectations were broadly unchanged. At 7.8%, 7.6% and 7.5% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively, the latest expectations continued to point to further falls in the unemployment rate over the next three years. Expectations for the unemployment rate in the longer term were revised down slightly to 7.4%.

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Notes:

• The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. The participants in the survey are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff. The next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections will be published on 6 June 2019.
• Since 2015 the results of the SPF have been published on the ECB’s website. For surveys prior to the first quarter of 2015, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-14: Q1 – February, Q2 – May, Q3 – August, Q4 – November).
• This survey was conducted between 8 and 11 January18 and 22 March 2019. The number of responses was 5658.
• The SPF report and data are available via the SPF webpage and via the ECB’s Statistical Data Warehouse.