Não disponível em português
Alex Grimaud
- 9 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3181Details
- Abstract
- We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency of price changes reached 12%, compared with an average of 8% over 2010–2019, roughly a four-percentage-point increase; it then fell quickly in 2023 and more slowly in 2024, ending close to its pre-pandemic level. The decline in the frequency of price changes was faster for food and nonenergy industrial goods (NEIG) than for services, where frequencies remained elevated in 2024. The overall frequency rose mainly because there were more price increases, while the magnitude of the average size of the price increases or decreases changed only marginally during the surge. Products with a larger imported-energy cost share responded more strongly, and hazard-rate evidence shows that the probability of price adjustments increases with the gap between actual and optimal prices, consistent with state-dependent pricing and a steepening of the Phillips curve. To illustrate the implications of this state dependence, a macro model suggests that peak inflation would have been almost 1 percentage point lower if the frequency had not responded to the inflation surge.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 6 November 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 377Details
- Abstract
- This paper serves as a reference guide on the effects of “standard” monetary policy shocks on output and prices, based on harmonised simulation exercises conducted across models of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), meta-analysis of existing empirical literature for the euro area, and selected works on heterogeneity and non-linearities in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by empirical models. Our analysis starts by comparing the effects of monetary policy shocks as estimated by structural, semi-structural and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and identifying the main sources of heterogeneity – most notably via the specification of monetary policy rules, the slope of the Phillips curve, the role of real rigidities and financial frictions, and the expectations formation mechanism. While DSGE models tend to produce sharper responses, semi-structural models often reveal more gradual and persistent effects, in line with backward-looking empirical models. The second chapter presents a meta-analysis of estimated effects based on the empirical literature, which are broadly consistent with the results obtained from the ESCB models, although differences might appear when correcting for publication bias, or accounting for different identification frameworks. The study is then complemented by selected works on heterogeneity and non-linearities in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by empirical models. Our analysis in the final chapter shows that monetary policy transmission is heterogeneous across countries, sectors, demand components, and time. It also reveals important non-linear and state-dependent dynamics: in high-inflation periods, greater price and wage flexibility amplifies the response of inflation while dampening output effects, thereby lowering the sacrifice ratio. [...]
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
D58 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 372Details
- Abstract
- This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Strategy Review 2020-21. While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation, with interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound (ELB), the inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of a monetary policy strategy that enables the Governing Council to effectively respond to major changes in the inflation environment.
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 371