Δεν διατίθεται στα ελληνικά.
Giovanni Stamato
- 29 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3081Details
- Abstract
- What are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? We set up a two-region, multi-sector model with production networks, sticky prices and wages, and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. We show that import tariffs on final goods have a smaller negative impact on GDP compared to tariffs on intermediate inputs, as final goods can be more readily substituted with domestic alternatives. In contrast, tariffs on intermediate inputs lead to larger GDP losses, given the limited substitutability of foreign inputs and their role in global supply chains. Moreover, inflation persistence is lower under tariffs on final goods, whereas tariffs on intermediate goods amplify cost pressures through production linkages. The results imply that a revenue-equivalent approach to import tariffs, targeting only final goods, can cushion the adverse effects of trade wars.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the effects of the tariffs imposed by the first Trump Administration in 2018. It shows that there was a significant decline in Chinese exports to the United States. Despite the potential for increased competitiveness, the euro area did not increase its market share in the United States. Chinese exports found alternative destinations, including South and South-East Asia and the euro area. The analysis highlights the potential channels through which US tariffs on Chinese goods could affect the euro area.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
- 29 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2960Details
- Abstract
- Rising trade tensions, a spate of trade-inhibiting policy measures and a weakening of multilateral institutions have sparked a growing concern about the potential implications of global trade fragmentation. Yet, empirical evidence that geopolitical considerations are already materially affecting trade flows is scant. In this study, we quantify the impact of geopolitical tensions on trade of manufacturing goods over the period 2012-2022 in a structural gravity framework. To capture the influence of geopolitical tensions, we use a measure of geopolitical distance based on UN General Assembly voting. The econometric analysis offers robust evidence that geopolitical distance has become a trade friction and its impact has steadily increased over time. Our results suggest that a 10% increase in geopolitical distance, like the observed increase in the US-China distance since 2018, is associated with a reduction in trade by about 2%. Our findings also highlight a differential and stronger impact on advanced economies and the emergence of friend-shoring.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
- 21 March 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Rising trade tensions and a spate of policies aiming to bring national security concerns to bear in trade relations have sparked growing concern about the potential implications of global trade fragmentation. Yet, empirical evidence that geopolitical concerns are already materially affecting trade patterns is scant. This box addresses the issue using a structural gravity model augmented with a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting to investigate the role played by geopolitical factors for trade in manufacturing goods over the period 2012-22. It provides evidence that the degree of geopolitical alignment is playing an increasing role in determining bilateral trade flows. The impact of geopolitical distance on trade is heterogeneous: in particular, geopolitical considerations mostly affect European trade in strategic products.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
- 24 May 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2822Details
- Abstract
- This paper empirically investigates the effect of the EU-South Korea free trade agreement (FTA) on manufacturing trade flows. By applying a state-of-the-art structural gravity model with intranational (i.e., domestic) trade and using disaggregated data, we quantify both the trade impact and the observed heterogeneity in the FTA estimates. In line with literature, we find that the FTA exerted asymmetric effects in bilateral exports across directions of trade. Compared to previous studies, our findings suggest a different explanation for the poor performances of Korean exports to the EU in the post-FTA period, namely offshoring patterns in electronics and a broad-based decline in the shipbuilding industry. When we drop these two export categories from the analysis, we show that the FTA exerted a large effect on trade in both directions, increasing bilateral exports by about 30 percent. We then investigate heterogeneity in pair-industry-specific estimates of the FTA. The main source of variation is represented by asymmetries in ex ante trade barriers across sectors, with a prominent role for non-tariff instruments. Stronger pre-FTA regulatory intensity is associated to a high liberalization potential, favouring larger FTA estimates.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade