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2022 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2022 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 Mar. 2023 Mar. 2024 2026
Mean point estimate 6.0 2.4 1.9 2.8 1.9 2.1
Standard deviation 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.3
Number of replies 57 56 45 41 33 45
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 Mar. 2023 Mar. 2024 2026
<-1.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.10.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.90.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 1.5 2.1 1.0 3.12.0
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 3.3 6.7 3.4 7.66.0
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 7.6 14.1 6.6 14.013.2
1.5 to 1.9% 0.3 14.6 25.3 11.4 21.224.9
2.0 to 2.4% 1.0 24.0 24.0 15.1 24.124.3
2.5 to 2.9% 1.7 19.8 15.3 18.0 17.116.0
3.0 to 3.4% 4.2 13.4 7.2 15.7 7.77.6
3.5 to 3.9% 7.6 7.8 2.8 11.1 2.83.2
>4.0% 85.2 6.6 1.3 16.9 1.11.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q2 core inflation forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 Mar. 2023 Mar. 2024 2026
Mean point estimate 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.9
Standard deviation 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 41 41 33 36 28 34
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 Mar. 2023 Mar. 2024 2026
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.30.4
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 1.12.0
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 2.3 4.6 2.6 4.35.9
1.0 to 1.4% 0.9 8.4 14.6 9.3 11.915.1
1.5 to 1.9% 3.2 23.4 30.2 17.3 25.329.9
2.0 to 2.4% 15.2 27.6 24.8 25.2 27.025.8
2.5 to 2.9% 27.6 18.7 14.7 20.6 16.613.7
3.0 to 3.4% 29.5 10.6 6.8 13.2 9.54.9
3.5 to 3.9% 17.0 5.5 2.0 6.6 2.91.7
>4.0% 6.5 3.0 0.7 4.3 1.10.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 2022 Q4 2023 Q4 2026
Mean point estimate 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.4
Standard deviation 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.3
Number of replies 57 56 48 43 41 44
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 2022 Q4 2023 Q4 2026
<-1.0% 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.6 0.90.7
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.0 0.71.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.8 1.4 1.5 3.9 1.62.3
0.0 to 0.4% 1.1 3.1 4.0 7.1 3.45.5
0.5 to 0.9% 1.9 5.6 8.3 10.2 6.812.7
1.0 to 1.4% 3.7 9.4 16.6 14.3 12.825.1
1.5 to 1.9% 9.1 16.1 29.1 18.5 18.227.4
2.0 to 2.4% 19.2 22.8 22.2 17.6 21.013.5
2.5 to 2.9% 29.1 21.7 10.1 13.8 18.26.2
3.0 to 3.4% 19.5 11.4 3.9 6.0 9.63.1
3.5 to 3.9% 10.3 4.0 2.1 2.9 3.81.1
4.0 to 5.9% 3.9 2.7 0.9 1.4 2.20.8
6.0 to 7.9% 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.60.2
8.0 to 9.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.20.0
>10.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 Feb. 2023 Feb. 2024 2026
Mean point estimate 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Number of replies 52 51 41 33 28 37
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 Feb. 2023 Feb. 2024 2026
<5.5% 1.0 2.5 3.6 2.9 4.56.1
5.5 to 5.9% 2.5 5.5 7.8 7.7 10.812.9
6.0 to 6.4% 11.6 17.8 21.7 21.4 24.221.9
6.5 to 6.9% 38.8 34.4 30.8 32.2 27.527.0
7.0 to 7.4% 27.8 21.5 19.7 19.6 15.214.4
7.5 to 7.9% 11.9 10.8 8.9 9.0 8.57.9
8.0 to 8.4% 3.7 4.0 3.6 4.2 5.04.5
8.5 to 8.9% 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 2.12.3
9.0 to 9.4% 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.21.4
9.5 to 9.9% 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.80.8
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.20.3
10.5 to 10.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.00.2
11.0 to 11.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.00.1
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0