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2024 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2024 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 Sep. 2025 Sep. 2026 2029
Mean point estimate 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 56 56 50 46 38 46
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 Sep. 2025 Sep. 2026 2029
<-0.8% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.70.4
-0.7 to -0.3% 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.90.6
-0.2 to 0.2% 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.81.5
0.3 to 0.7% 0.2 2.7 4.2 3.3 4.93.5
0.8 to 1.2% 0.5 7.9 9.0 8.0 9.98.9
1.3 to 1.7% 2.3 21.5 18.9 18.0 18.819.0
1.8 to 2.2% 26.5 36.7 33.8 33.0 30.034.8
2.3 to 2.7% 60.4 18.1 16.9 20.4 17.617.2
2.8 to 3.2% 8.0 7.1 8.1 9.2 8.47.0
3.3 to 3.7% 1.2 2.4 3.4 2.9 3.63.6
3.8 to 4.2% 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.71.6
4.3 to 4.7% 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.90.9
>4.8% 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.90.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q4 core inflation forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 Sep. 2025 Sep. 2026 2029
Mean point estimate 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 42 42 38 36 32 34
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 Sep. 2025 Sep. 2026 2029
<-0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.30.2
-0.7 to -0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.50.4
-0.2 to 0.2% 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 1.21.2
0.3 to 0.7% 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.7 4.43.3
0.8 to 1.2% 0.2 4.5 7.3 7.3 8.58.5
1.3 to 1.7% 1.4 14.1 19.0 18.8 20.719.7
1.8 to 2.2% 3.8 36.0 37.3 34.5 32.436.2
2.3 to 2.7% 29.2 27.3 19.8 21.8 19.417.8
2.8 to 3.2% 58.1 11.3 7.0 9.1 7.76.5
3.3 to 3.7% 6.1 3.6 2.7 2.7 3.03.3
3.8 to 4.2% 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.21.4
4.3 to 4.7% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.40.8
>4.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.40.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 2025 Q2 2026 Q2 2029
Mean point estimate 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 56 56 49 48 37 43
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 2025 Q2 2026 Q2 2029
<-1.0% 0.3 1.4 1.6 2.8 3.41.8
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.91.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 2.7 3.0 2.6 4.1 3.53.2
0.0 to 0.4% 15.7 6.9 5.6 9.5 6.96.4
0.5 to 0.9% 58.4 19.4 13.4 22.3 13.414.6
1.0 to 1.4% 17.5 33.8 29.1 30.2 26.127.9
1.5 to 1.9% 2.8 21.4 25.2 16.6 23.525.1
2.0 to 2.4% 0.9 7.6 11.6 6.7 11.510.9
2.5 to 2.9% 0.3 2.9 5.5 2.9 5.35.0
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.2 2.21.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.31.0
>4.0% 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.11.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 Aug. 2025 Aug. 2026 2029
Mean point estimate 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4
Number of replies 51 51 44 36 32 39
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 Aug. 2025 Aug. 2026 2029
<4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.60.8
4.0 to 4.4% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.60.8
4.5 to 4.9% 0.3 0.6 1.4 0.7 1.62.5
5.0 to 5.4% 0.8 2.0 4.5 2.4 4.96.7
5.5 to 5.9% 2.4 8.2 12.7 9.1 11.917.8
6.0 to 6.4% 42.4 33.7 35.2 30.8 32.125.1
6.5 to 6.9% 46.9 36.5 27.3 34.4 25.320.8
7.0 to 7.4% 4.7 12.1 10.6 14.2 13.013.0
7.5 to 7.9% 1.3 4.1 4.1 5.3 5.65.7
8.0 to 8.4% 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.32.8
8.5 to 8.9% 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.01.7
9.0 to 9.4% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.60.9
9.5 to 9.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.20.6
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
10.5 to 10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.10.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0