Expectations surveys: a tool for research and monetary policy

Welcome address

Philip Lane, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

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Session 1

Session chair: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: novel evidence from firm-level data

• Marco Bottone, Banca d’Italia
• Alex Tagliabracci*, Banca d’Italia
• Giordano Zevi, Banca d’Italia

Diverse policy committees can reach underrepresented groups

• Francesco D’Acunto, Boston College
• Andreas Fuster, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
• Michael Weber*, University of Chicago

Would households understand average inflation targeting?

• Mathias Hoffmann, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Emanuel Mönch, Deutsche Bundesbank, Goethe University Frankfurt
• Lora Pavlova*, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Guido Schultefrankenfeld, Deutsche Bundesbank

Session 2

Session chair: Livio Stracca, European Central Bank

News and uncertainty about COVID-19: survey evidence and short-run economic impact

• Alexander Dietrich, University of Tübingen
• Keith Kuester, University of Bonn
• Gernot Müller*, University of Tübingen
• Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

Business expectations and uncertainty in developing and emerging economies

• Edgar Avalos, The World Bank
• José María Barrero*, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México
• Elwyn Davies, The World Bank
• Leonardo Iacovone, The World Bank
• Jesica Torres, The World Bank

Belief-dependent pricing decisions

• Serafín Frache, Universidad de Montevideo
• Rodrigo Lluberas, Universidad ORT Uruguay
• Javier Turen Roman*, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Keynote speech: How do people understand the economy?

Stefanie Stantcheva, Harvard University

Chair: Luc Laeven, European Central Bank

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Session 3

Session chair: Beatrice Pierluigi, European Central Bank

Forecasting UK GDP growth with large survey panels

Eleni Kalamara*, King’s College London

Disagreement about monetary policy

Karthik Sastry*, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys

• Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Argia Sbordone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Giorgio Topa*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• John C. Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

End of first conference day

Opening

Session 4

Session chair: Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank

Beliefs and portfolios: causal evidence

• Johannes Beutel*, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Michael Weber, University of Chicago

Inflation expectations and portfolio rebalancing of households: evidence from inflation targeting in India

• Sumit Agarwal, National University of Singapore
• Yeow Hwee Chua*, National University of Singapore
• Pulak Ghosh, Indian Institute of Management Bangalore
• Changcheng Song, Singapore Management University

Beliefs about the stock market and investment choices: evidence from a field experiment

• Christine Laudenbach, University of Bonn
• Annika Weber, Goethe University Frankfurt
• Johannes Wohlfart*, University of Copenhagen

Session 5

Session chair: Katrin Assenmacher, European Central Bank

Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from a new consumer survey

• Dimitris Georgarakos*, European Central Bank
• Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

The effects of forward guidance: theory with measured expectations

• Christopher Roth, University of Cologne
• Mirko Wiederholt*, Paris Institute of Political Sciences
• Johannes Wohlfart, University of Copenhagen

Inflation disasters and consumption

Jane Ryngaert*, Wake Forest University

Keynote speech: Recent movements in inflation expectations

Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics

Chair: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

Watch live from 17:00 CET

Session 6

Session chair: Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Expectation formation and uncertain information quality: evidence and theory

• Heng Chen, The University of Hong Kong
• Xu Li, The University of Hong Kong
• Guangyu Pei*, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
• Qian Xin, Harbin Institute of Technology

For better or worse? Subjective expectations and cost-benefit trade-offs in health behaviour: an application to lockdown compliance in the United Kingdom

• Gabriella Conti, University College London
• Pamela Giustinelli*, Bocconi University

Contracts and firms’ inflation expectations

• Dennis Wesselbaum*, University of Otago
• Saten Kumar, Auckland University of Technology